NOTES

15/6/19

THE SUN always warms the Night temps the most because the heat that is absorbed by the ground in the day time is very slowly released at night ( keeping the air warm ).

So Only clear calm nights release all/most of the heat that is gained.

So when we get a cloudy night that heat that is stored in the ground cant radiate as fast back to space as it does on a clear night.

FORECAST FOR 2018.

Posted 12/1/18.

This will be an interesting year again.
Weak La Niña over the Summer (Jan-May 2018) should bring above avg rainfall.Warmer summer overall.
There should be still 5 days over 30c with one day getting to near 33c.
..............................................................
Winter should be abit cooler than 2017 with snow on the ground at least 2 times.

1. What weather do we expect to get this November 2016.
2. Only being 2 YEARS PAST solar MAX we would expect air temps to still be WARMER than normal.
   SO we are looking at a warmer November by 0.25c to 0.50c.
   Sunshine should be normal.......
   Rainfall should be 30% less than normal= 35mm.
   We should get more NorthEAST winds than normal with low cloud to start 30% of the days in November

22/10/16.
We had a air frost last night.
So this year we had 6 months of FROST being recorded.
7 months is the most and the avg being 6.
So over all in the socalled WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD we still get the avg number of FROST months in a year.

 posted on the 1/1/16

What will 2016 bring in the way of weather.
WITH THE sun AT RECORD HOT TEMPS WE WOULD EXPECT that northwest winds will be at near to record heat.

With the El Niño now gradually dissipating normal rainfall may start by May with a above avg winter more than likely.

Chance of SNOW this winter.

Rainfall for the year should still be below normal over all at about 550mm (460.4mm last year 2015)

After an El Niño we should get a La Niña by next Christmas which brings cooler but  wetter summers.

The lakes down south should stat to dry up. Power cuts in winter 2017 at 30% chance.

So avg air temp for 2016 should be about 12.3c  up 0.4c on 2015.

Drought should be over by May 2016.

I will keep a copy of this on my web sites here

 5/11/15

 Temperature records broken around the country.

 https://www.niwa.co.nz/news/temperature-records-broken-around-the-country

The Mackenzie Country’s big freeze - June 2015

Gregor Macara – Climate Scientist, NIWA Wellington

As we entered the second half of June 2015 the perfect sequence of weather conditions occurred which enabled Mackenzie Basin temperatures to plummet to record and near-record lows. This weather sequence can be broken down into three phases, with each phase making an important contribution to the resulting extremely low temperatures:
Phase One: Heavy snowfall. On 18 and 19 June, heavy snow fell throughout the South Island. This was a warm-advection snowfall event, whereby moisture-laden warm air arriving from the northwest was undercut by much cooler air from the south, enabling prolonged heavy snowfall to relatively low elevations. Snow depths varied throughout the Mackenzie Country, with reports of at least 10 cm in southern parts and up to 50 cm or more in remaining areas.
Phase Two: Cold-air injection. On 21 June, the broad area of low pressure which brought the heavy snow drew away to the east of the South Island. This established a southerly airflow over the South Island which injected even colder air than that which contributed to the heavy snowfall. Snow flurries were reported to near sea-level in eastern parts of the South Island, and while little or no new snow was reported in the Mackenzie Country, this colder air did manage to penetrate into the inland basins. The southerly flow persisted to 22 June, but eased with the approach of a high pressure system.
Phase Three: High pressure system. On 22 June skies gradually cleared over the South Island with the arrival of a strong high pressure system (anticyclone). Cold air from the southerly outbreak lingered, and effectively became trapped in the inland basins by the anticyclone. The combination of clear skies and cold air saw temperatures fall rapidly: parts of Mackenzie Country were already below -10°C by 7 pm on 22 June.
The anticyclone became established over the South Island on 22 June and remained in place for around four days. Anticyclones are typically associated with pleasant weather however in this case it contributed to decidedly unpleasant conditions in the Mackenzie Country. Clear skies meant that any heat from the sun was lost rapidly at night (as opposed to the presence of cloud cover, which acts like a blanket and traps heat in the atmosphere). As it was near winter solstice this overnight cooling was prolonged by the length of time between sunset and sunrise. Light winds meant that the cold air remained undisturbed in inland parts. Cold air has a higher density than warm air, so the lack of wind enabled this cold air to pool in the basins, resulting in an inversion (i.e. temperature increases with increasing elevation). Finally, snow cover on the ground reflects a considerable proportion of the sun’s energy, which would otherwise contribute to an increase in air temperature.
Notably, a very similar sequence of weather events was reported in July 1903, when Ranfurly observed New Zealand’s lowest temperature on record (-25.6°C on 17 July 1903). In this case, heavy snowfall occurred throughout the South Island on 10 July 1903, which was followed by an anticyclone which persisted for at least seven days.

For further information, please contact:
Mr Chris Brandolino
NIWA Forecaster – NIWA National Climate Centre
Tel. 09 375 6335, Mobile (027) 886 0014
For climate data enquiries, please contact:
Ms Petra Chappell
Climate Scientist, NIWA Auckland
Tel. 09 375 2052

Some Climatology on May.

Coldest  night temp -6.4c=2015
  Warmest  night temp 13.9c=1999.
Coldest   Day max temp 4.3c=1990
  Warmest  Day time max 27.3c=1990.
Coldest avg month air temp 6.98c=1992.
Warmest avg month temp for May  is 12.1c=1997.

10/4/15

Some Climatology on Februarys.

Coldest February night temp 0.5c 1992.
Warmest February night temp 23c 1972.
Coldest February Day max temp 12.9c in 2009....
Warmest February Day time max 41.6c in 1972.
Coldest avg month air temp for Feb 15.40c in 2003.
Warmest avg month temp for Feb is 19.5c in 1998.

 .....................October A.v.g DAY TIME air temp by wind direction........
Normal East wind=15.5c we got in 2014 14.8c much colder.than normal.
" " Northeast=16.79c " " " " 16.06c much colder than normal.
" " North wind=19.93c " " " " 19.53c cooler than normal.
" " Northwest =21.42c " " " " 19.78c very much colder....
" " West wind=16.28c " " ' " 21.5c Very much warmer.
" " Southwest=16.28c " " " " 15.9c Much colder than normal.
" " South wind=14.34c" " " " 13.93c Cooler than normal.

But where do we find the greatest abundance of life on land? Follow the equator around the globe – the Amazon, the Congo, Kenya, Indonesia and New Guinea – all places where it is warm and wet.

And where is life such a struggle that few species live there? Go towards the poles – Siberia and the cold deserts of Antarctica and Greenland.

Where do most tourists go in winter? Few go to Alaska or Iceland – most head towards the warmth of the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the Black Sea and Bali.

Which season is most welcomed? It is not the first frost, nor the first snowstorm, but the first cherry blossoms, the first robins, and the welcome green shoots of new spring pasture.

Land life multiplies in summer – many mammals hibernate or die in winter.

Every nurseryman knows that plants grow best in a warm greenhouse with added carbon dioxide. Global warmth speeds up the life-supporting water and carbon cycles – warming oceans expel the gases of life (carbon dioxide and water vapour) producing more clouds, more precipitation and more plant growth.

This is why the warm eras of the past are remembered as periods of plenty – the cold eras are times of hunger, migrations and war.

Life on Earth has never been threatened by greenhouse warming. It is the sudden plunge into an ice age that we need to fear.

Green alarmists should venture from their cosy offices and coffee shops and celebrate the welcome warmth of our global greenhouse while it lasts.

Warmth is good.

Viv Forbes,
Rosewood    Qld   Australia
carbon-sense.com

 12/7/14

 I may of made a scientific discovery as to how the solar cycle effects on climate.

 AVG Wind temp for May.2014

.......................2014.....Normal

East avg=====15.4c....14.0c

Northesst. avg=13.0c....14.1c

North avg=====18.8c...18.3c

Northwest avg.=20.4c....21.3c

West avg==..==11.9c...13.3c

Southwest avg=12.3c....12.7c

South avg ====NA

Southeast avg=13.2c....13.9c

So what we can see from this is the the 

East and North were warmer than normal.

The Northeast and Northwest and West 

and Southwest and Southeast winds 

were cool than normal.

So why did we get a warmer than normal

May for 2014.??.

It was because we had more cloudy nights

and more Northwest wind days than normal.

Normal number of Northwest winds for

May is 5 we thad 9 days.

 3/5/14

6/3/14

I don't get the one in a century event. claim as we got lest rain than last Junes rain storm.

 A NOTE ON THE AVG temperature THIS YEAR.

In 2013 we had 97 days with a wind from the South.
In 2012 we had 110 days with a South wind.
So here again 2013 was warmer also because we had less South winds.

In 2013 we had 118 days with an east wind.
In 2012 we had 131 days

15/11/13

 The Land Sea index is at -0.5 which mean that when theirs a Northeast wind their will always be cloud at times over Christchurch.

Once the reading gets to 0 and higher then we will see sunny all day warm Northeast weather.

If the index gos lower then we could be in for a cold summer.

Mark.R

 http://www.solarham.net/

22/07/13

The way avg air temps are work out is don't done right.
 The way it should be done is that the avg air temp should be based on where the wind is coming from IE the avg temp for a Northwest wind in July is 17c.
 Now if we had a month of Northwest winds (which does not happen) and the avg temp for the month of Northwest work out to be 17c (day time temps) then that would be a normal July.

 Like this month is going to be warmer than normal but only because we had more Northwest winds days than normal and less Northeast days than normal.

 19/07/13
I also record a solar heat index.
 July so far is the warmest for a July by 2 points.(25.5)
 Last warmest Solar heat index for July was in 2011 with a reading of 24.3 points.
 This is what we would expect at Solar Max.
 When the last Solar min in July we had a reading of 19.5 points.
 This extra heat from the sun is making July 2013 a warm one.
 We are as of today 1c warmer than normal for July 2013.
 So as I said over the last 4 months August could be our coldest month for this year.

 When they say Christchurch will only go down to 8c.
 That 8c is only for the airport where all chch temps for NIWA are taken.
 It dose not mean that Bishopdale will get a low of 8c or Beckenham, Summer and so on.
 Air temp can be different even 1 km away from the airport.
 Also to use the airport as the site for all off Christchurch is not right as 95% of Christchurch is as far as 15km to the east and gets different winds at times.
 IE there can be a hot Northwest at the airport and a cool Northeast wind say in Beckenham.

 CANTERBURYS PAST GREAT SNOWSTORMS .Part one

 It was 1895 which took the honours as the most severe winter.
Winter came on strong in April that year
with heavy snow.
Followed by blizzards in May,June and July.

 Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
By Charles Onians
Monday 20 March 2000

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
 

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
 
The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.
 
Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.
 
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
 
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
 
The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.
 
Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said.
 
Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating".
 
Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.
 
Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.
 
"We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said.
 
David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.
 
Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.
 
The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

http://web.archive.org/web/20100209052939/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html